In one line. Dubai's residential sales value fell about 46-47% year-on-year in Q3 2026 in two independent counts, while a third count shows a much larger total (The National, Khaleej Times, TravelsDubai, October 2026).
Best for. Investors and sellers who quote market data to clients, banks or co-owners and want to cite it correctly.
What you will learn.
- What each Q3 report measured
- Why the totals do not match
- What the reports agree on
- How to quote the data without misleading anyone
Bottom line. The direction is clear: fewer deals, lower value, and off-plan carrying most of the volume. The exact totals depend on who counted and what they counted.
Three Reports, Three Totals
Report one. Cavendish Maxwell data, reported by The National on 7 October, shows Q3 residential sales of AED 72.6 billion, down 47% year-on-year, from about 34,000 transactions, down 38%.
Report two. Savills, reported by Khaleej Times on 13 October, counts 34,500 residential transactions worth AED 70.8 billion. That is down 38% in volume and 46% in value on Q3 2025, when value was AED 132.2 billion.
Report three. fäm Properties, reported by TravelsDubai on 6 October, counts 37,429 sales worth AED 92.9 billion. Off-plan made up 25,441 of those sales (AED 52.6 billion) and resale 11,988 (AED 40.3 billion).
| Source | Transactions | Value | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cavendish Maxwell (The National) | About 34,000 | AED 72.6bn | Volume -38%, value -47% |
| Savills (Khaleej Times) | 34,500 | AED 70.8bn | Volume -38%, value -46% |
| fäm Properties (TravelsDubai) | 37,429 | AED 92.9bn | Not stated in the article |
Why the Totals Differ
Scope. The first two reports describe residential sales. The fäm article reports overall sales and does not say whether plots and commercial units are included. September alone had 237 plot deals and 539 commercial deals in the same article, so scope could account for part of the gap. That is our inference, not a stated reason.
Timing. The National notes that part of the decline reflects the lag between an agreed purchase and its formal registration. Reports cut at different dates will not match.
Nine-month totals. Emirates 24|7 reported 165,018 deals worth AED 574.12 billion for January to September, and called it the second-highest sales value on record. Cavendish Maxwell's residential count for the same nine months is 112,580 transactions worth AED 292 billion. Same period, different scope.
What All of Them Agree On
Off-plan share. Cavendish Maxwell puts off-plan at 65% of Q3 value and 72% of purchases. In the fäm count, off-plan is 25,441 of 37,429 sales, or 68%. Savills shows off-plan value of AED 45.7 billion against AED 25.1 billion for ready homes.
The slowdown. S&P Global Ratings, citing DLD data, calculates an average of 12,644 sales a month from March to September 2026. That is 26% below the 17,198 a month in January and February.
Prices. Savills puts the average apartment price at AED 1,817 per sq ft, down 4.8% on the previous quarter. Villas and townhouses average AED 1,523, down 3.3%. S&P cites industry reports of declines between 5% and 15% since the end of 2025 and expects a gradual correction.
How to Quote the Data
- Pick one source per comparison. Do not set Savills value against fäm value in the same table.
- Write the scope. Say residential, or all sale types, next to every total.
- Check the cut-off date. A quarter closed on 30 September and a report filed in mid-October may differ after late registrations.
- Go to the building. A citywide fall of 46% says little about what your tower traded at last month. Pull DLD transactions for your own community.
"When three reports disagree on the total, the useful move is to agree on the direction, then go to your own building's transactions for the number."
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Book a 30-minute advisory call →Frequently Asked Questions
Did Dubai property sales fall in Q3 2026?
Yes. Both the Cavendish Maxwell and Savills counts show volume down 38% and value down 46-47% on Q3 2025.
Why does fäm show a higher total?
The article reports overall sales and does not state its scope. It may include categories the other two exclude, but the article does not confirm that.
How much of Q3 was off-plan?
Cavendish Maxwell reports 65% of value and 72% of purchases. The fäm count shows 25,441 of 37,429 sales as primary.
Are prices falling?
Savills shows quarter-on-quarter falls of 4.8% for apartments and 3.3% for villas and townhouses. S&P cites industry reports of 5-15% declines since end-2025.
Which figure should I quote?
Quote the one whose scope matches your point, and name it. For residential trends, the Cavendish Maxwell and Savills figures line up closely.
Sources cited in this article
- The National: Dubai home sale transactions fall in third quarter
- Khaleej Times: Rents in Dubai fall over 12% (Savills Q3 2026 data)
- TravelsDubai: Dubai real estate eyes rental record as off-plan sales outpace resales
- Emirates 24|7: Dubai real estate transactions hit Dh574 billion in nine months
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Editorial analysis for information only, not financial advice. Figures as reported by cited sources; verify current rules and unit-level details via DLD before any decision.